How Institutions Trap Retail Traders & The Blueprint to Outsmart✍️ Intro:
You’re not losing trades because you're unlucky.
You're losing because you’re playing in someone else’s trap.
This post reveals the actual game behind price movement — one that 95% of retail traders don’t even know exists.
Welcome to Liquidity Hunting — the psychological and structural method smart money uses to take your stop, steal your position, and use your exit to fund their entry.
🔍 What is Liquidity in Real Terms?
Most people throw around the word “liquidity” without really getting it.
Let’s define it clearly:
Liquidity = Clusters of pending orders (mostly stop-losses and pending breakouts).
Whenever a lot of traders are positioned in the same direction — their stop-losses naturally pool together. This forms a liquidity pocket that smart money can use.
Now ask yourself:
Where do most retail SLs sit?
Just below recent support.
Just above recent resistance.
Exactly where the wick comes before reversing, right?
That’s not coincidence.
That’s intentional.
🎯 The True Intent of Smart Money
Institutions can’t enter markets like you do. They're trading massive volumes.
They need:
Liquidity to get filled
Retail to take the opposite side
A reason to justify the move
So they create a false narrative.
They build chart patterns that scream “Buy now!” or “Sell breakout!”
They get retail to commit.
Then they run price into your SL — collect it — and move the opposite direction.
They use your exit…
As their entry.
⚙️ The Mechanics of a Liquidity Hunt (With Sequence)
Step 1: Build the Trap
Smart money allows price to form:
Multiple equal highs/lows
Clean support and resistance
A trendline with touches
A breakout zone with “fake pressure”
Retail traders get sucked into this illusion.
They start buying support. Selling resistance. Placing SLs behind the obvious.
That’s where liquidity builds up.
Step 2: The Sweep
Once enough liquidity is sitting there, the trap is activated.
Price makes a sharp move into that zone
Takes out every SL or triggers breakout orders
Retail thinks it’s a breakout or trend continuation
But it’s just a liquidity grab
This is the sweep.
You see a massive wick or a sudden engulfing move into the zone.
Retail thinks:
“It’s breaking out!” → But really, it’s sucking them in.
Step 3: The Shift (MSS/BOS)
Immediately after the sweep, smart money:
Exits their fake move
Reverses direction
Breaks recent structure
This Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Break of Structure (BOS) is your real signal.
This is where retail gets trapped and frozen.
Stopped out. Missed the reversal.
Or worse — still holding the wrong side.
Step 4: Entry Opportunity (FVG / OB Zones)
Price now pulls back to:
A Fair Value Gap (FVG) — a sudden imbalance caused by fast moves
A Bullish/Bearish Order Block — the last candle before the impulse
This pullback is where smart money re-enters to scale.
This is your sniper entry zone.
Low risk
High RR
Emotionally clean (because you waited, not chased)
📚 Real-World Chart Example
Let’s say Gold is trading at 1980.
You see clean resistance at 2000 — multiple rejections.
Retail thinks:
“When 2000 breaks, I’m buying. Target 2010. SL below 1995.”
Price pushes to 2000. Breaks 2002.
Everyone enters long.
Then — sudden drop to 1987, stops out all entries.
Then price shoots to 2020 without them.
Classic sweep.
You see it daily.
🚨 Common Retail Mistakes That Get Hunted
Blind Breakout Trading – Entering without thinking who’s on the other side
Fixed SLs below structures – Same spot as everyone = easy to trap
Emotionally Chasing – No plan, just FOMO entries
Lack of Patience – Not waiting for confirmation
🧭 How to Flip the Script: Be the Hunter
Here’s the method to become a sniper, not a victim:
✅ 1. Identify Liquidity Zones
Equal highs/lows
Clean retail structures
Obvious trendlines
That’s where SLs pile up.
✅ 2. Wait for the Sweep
Don’t jump early. Let the market:
Take out those zones
Show impulsive wick or move
Look like a breakout
✅ 3. Watch for Market Structure Shift
Break of recent structure confirms trap
Look for BOS + FVG or OB
✅ 4. Enter on the Pullback
Entry at OB or FVG = sniper.
Keep tight SL below the sweep candle or OB.
✅ 5. Ride With Confidence
You’re now in a position where:
Retail is trapped
Smart money is scaling
RR is high
Emotion is dead
🔥 Final Mindset Shift
Stop thinking like a retail trader.
Start thinking:
“If I were a bank, where would I trap people?”
Because that’s what institutions do — every single day.
They don’t chase. They trap.
They don’t trade signals. They build them.
They don’t follow trends. They reverse them.
Now that you know the game…
Trade the trap. Not the bait.
Futures market
GOLD’S IN OVERDRIVE - MISSED THE TRAIN? WAIT FOR THE NEXT STOP!Symbol - XAUUSD
CMP - 3330
Gold remains in a strong upward trend, consistently reaching new all-time highs. Entering a rapidly advancing market without sufficient opportunity to assess risk is inadvisable. Therefore, engaging in the current momentum without a confirmed technical setup is not recommended. A potential price correction ahead of upcoming US retail sales data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may provide a more favorable environment to identify trading opportunities.
The rally is being driven by several fundamental factors, including robust economic data from China, increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties between the US and China. Further upward momentum is being supported by ANZ’s revised forecast, which projects gold prices could reach $3,600 by year-end.
From a technical standpoint, the psychological resistance zone between $3330 and $3350 is of particular interest, where a pullback may be expected. The preferred strategy would be to await a correction toward local or intermediate support levels before considering long positions.
Key Resistance Levels: 3330, 3350
Key Support Level: 3275, 3265, 3244
Given the strength of the prevailing bullish trend, breakout strategies above resistance levels may be effective. However, such an approach requires clear price consolidation, which is not currently present. Alternatively, a more prudent strategy would be to wait for a retracement, a confirmation of support, and then consider initiating long positions.
Copper 856-860 upside Target avoid any sell trade no Sell signalHow to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Natural gas updated levels trying to make bottom How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Crude positional Target 5530 hit buy recommended at 5090How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Silver mcx positional support and resistance area How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Silver XAG/USD support and resistance levels How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Gold mcx positional support and resistance levels How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
Gold XAUUSD positional levels support and resistance How to take trades using Harmonic pattern projection Trade setup is explained below :-
Entry : 1st SL point : 0% is recent top or bottom.
Trailing D: 11.4% is work as trailing SL of buy or sell trade if hit then we have to book profit
.If price goes below 2nd D 21.4% to 23.6% range then early traders can make fresh reversals trade after breaking 1st D 11.4% safe traders can reversal trade after breaking Point D 21.4% to 23.6% range
Targets :
Target T1 : 35.1% to 38.3%
Target T3 : 49.1% to 53.2%
T3: 60.9% to 64.8% is our 3rd Target since this is reversal zone so must book profit if break then take fresh trade again
Target T4 : 76.4% to 79.7%
Next Targets are 100% , 127.2% ,141.4% and final Target 161.8%.
How to take reversal trade :
If price going upside/ downside then then buy or sell levels appear on Chart ( Automatically show when price reach any reversal zone of harmonic projection pattern based .
After showing reversal levels wait for confirmation until 21.4% or 28.3 % level not break if break then exit from current buy / sell trade and take fresh reverse trade buy/ sell .
Trailing SL:
After reach 1st Target trail SL to just above or below cost ( for example we are holding sell trade from 100 1st Target 110 hit then move trailing sl to 104-105 and move SL as price move upside or Downside)
Re- Entry :
For Re-entry in any pull back Point D ( 11.4% ) is used for re-entry then SL recent high or low Point SL ( 0% ) .
Blue Line is 1st support/ Resistance
Green line is 2nd support/ resistance
Red line is 3rd Support/ resistance
GOLD ANALHYSIS 17-4-2025Gold (XAU/USD) has shown a sharp vertical rally recently, pushing aggressively from sub-3225 levels to above 3340 . However, we are now seeing the first sign of exhaustion — a strong rejection candle with volume has appeared near the top of the move, signaling potential short-term weakness. Price is currently hovering above a critical area marked as the Dead Money Zone — a range between approximately 3315 to 3225 where momentum tends to stall, and directional clarity is often missing. For intraday traders, this zone is best avoided until a decisive breakout occurs. If the price breaks below the zone , it opens up a clean day trade opportunity targeting the 3265 region, which aligns with prior structural support. On the flip side, if the market reclaims the recent high and pushes beyond 3340, it could resume the bullish leg. Until then, this remains a high-risk no-trade zone where patience is key.
Trump’s Trade Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand Amid USD WeaknessGold Analysis: Trump’s Trade Tensions Fuel Safe Haven Demand Amid USD Weakness 💰📈
On April 15, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on critical mineral imports, marking a further escalation in the trade dispute with global partners, especially China. This new wave of tension between the world's two largest economies has caused market sentiment to weaken, pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) has weakened, dropping to its lowest level in three years last week, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies.
Fed's Stance on Market Volatility: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve will not intervene to "rescue" markets amid heavy volatility, emphasizing that the market is reacting to several uncertainties, particularly the ever-changing trade policies under Trump. Powell believes it's too early to determine what is really causing the volatility, and in the short term, instability could persist, partly driven by hedge funds reducing leverage.
Gold Outlook: Bullish Trend Continues:
Given the current market conditions, it’s evident that gold is likely to continue its upward momentum and reach new all-time highs (ATH). With global financial markets offering little hope for immediate monetary stimulus, as announced by the Fed, gold remains an appealing choice.
Trading Strategy:
Current View: Focus on BUY positions as the market continues to push higher. While we’re trading at ATH levels, sharp pullbacks are normal and can be expected without major news triggers.
Trade Plan: We won’t look for SELL entries at this point, but instead wait for strong market pullbacks to buy. If significant drops occur, we’ll enter BUY positions based on continuation patterns (CP) and key support levels on M15 and M30 charts.
Expected Pullback: After a strong push early in the Asian session today, the price is expected to return to the 331x - 3300 range for potential buy entries.
Key Support Levels:
3314, 3300, 3284, 3266
Key Resistance Levels:
3380, 3396, 3410
Trade Zones:
BUY ZONE: 3300 - 3298
SL: 3264
TP: 3304 - 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320 - 3324 - 3330 - ???
SELL ZONE: 3396 - 3398
SL: 3402
TP: 3392 - 3388 - 3384 - 3380 - 3376 - 3370
Important Reminder:
Focus on securing BUY entries today. Although there could be sudden drops for potential SELL opportunities, they aren’t part of the plan for now. Wait for key resistance levels or psychological barriers set by other traders for potential shorting.
Always adhere to TP/SL levels to ensure your account remains safe. 🛡️
The Calm Before the Next Gold Explosion🔎 What Just Happened?
Gold didn’t walk... it launched.
A massive impulsive move from sub-3,250 levels straight into 3,360 territory. No pullbacks, no hesitation — classic Smart Money rally.
But now?
Price is moving sideways... and that’s not random.
❗This is what pros call a liquidity trap setup — before the next move, they want YOU confused.
Level | Type | Notes
3,355 – 3,360 | 🔻 Supply | Rejection zone – sellers likely here
3,290 – 3,310 | 🔵 FVG | High-probability buy zone
3,278 | 🔑 Structure support | Break = downside possible
3,245 | 💣 Deep demand | If we go here, look for aggressive buys
🎯 My Game Plan:
📈 If price drops into 3,290–3,310 (FVG):
I’m watching for engulfing candle, order block, or strong wick rejection.
TP: 3,355
SL: Below 3,278
📉 If we break below 3,278:
Short scalps open up toward 3,245.
But be cautious — gold loves fakeouts before reversal.
💬 Real Talk for Traders:
“This isn’t retail RSI and MACD. This is SMC. This is about understanding where the big money hides and plays the game.”
Stay patient.
Let price come to your levels.
Trade with intent — not emotion.
🚀 If this breakdown helped, smash the follow button.
More live setups, real-time breakdowns, and SMC fire coming your way.
Drop a 💎 in the comments if you’re planning to catch the next XAU move!
XAUUSD Intraday Liquidity Flow – Key Intraday Triggers
If price breaks the current low and forms a new low during the NYC session, wait patiently for a Market Structure Shift (MSS) before entering.
Daily High (DH) is not tested yet – potential target for price.
If change in direction with good displacement (forming FVGs): Consider taking profit at Daily High (DH).
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold takes a breather after $3358: Next $3380 or $3280 ?Gold updates new All Time High at 3358 and shows sideways trades in retracement mode which witnesses a mild pullback towards support base formed at 3312
Meanwhile buyers keep attacking immediate resistance zone 3332 supported by stability above 3324
If price action shows strong break above 3332 followed by clearing through 3345, retest of 3358 is a fair possibility that also opens the way to further advance towards 3380
Overbought conditions on higher time frame indicated by Monthly RSI reading 85 urges caution ⚠️ of imminent intervention triggered by widespread Profit booking in the event of some positive development on tariff war.
Break below support zone 3212 will push the metal down to 3304 below which next downside targets 3280 followed by 3245 horizontal demand zone.
XAU/ USD) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
analysis for XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD) on the 2-hour timeframe appears to suggest a bullish continuation setup after a correction. Here's a breakdown of the idea:
Key Points from the Chart:
1. Rising Channel:
The price is moving within an ascending channel.
After a breakout and strong rally, it is currently in a flag or wedge-like correction pattern.
2. Correction Zone:
The price is consolidating downward inside a small descending wedge (a bullish pattern), potentially forming a bull flag.
This is typically a sign of continuation after a strong upward impulse.
3. Support Zone:
A 4H support level is marked around 3,301.416, which aligns with the lower boundary of the flag pattern.
This is a potential buy zone for price to react and bounce.
4. Target Point:
The target is projected at 3,404.254, implying a breakout to the upside if the support holds.
5. RSI Indicator:
RSI is currently around 65, with previous values near 80, suggesting a slight cooldown but still in bullish territory.
A slight drop in RSI might occur before the next bounce.
6. EMA 200:
The EMA 200 is well below current price (around 3,137), indicating a strong bullish trend.
Mr SMC Trading point
Possible Trade Idea:
Entry: Around the 3,301–3,305 support area.
Confirmation: Wait for a bullish reversal pattern (engulfing candle or strong bounce).
Target: Around 3,404 (as per the marked target zone).
Stop Loss: Below the support zone (e.g., below 3,295), depending on risk tolerance.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
XAU/USDPrice action is a trading technique where traders analyze and interpret the raw price movements of a financial asset over time to make trading decisions. Instead of heavily relying on lagging technical indicators or fundamental analysis, price action focuses on the "footprints" of buyers and sellers as reflected on a price chart.
Today's gold price target is 3400Today's gold price target is 3400
In any case, you can only face your own trading plan with a bullish mentality.
I tend to continue to chase more around 3300-3305.
Gold prices finally started to rise from last Friday to Tuesday this week, but they have risen by 100 points and the pace of increase has not stopped.
Still strong and volatile at high levels, it fully confirms the importance of emotions.
The principle of gold trading is always: follow the trend rather than follow the price.
At present, the Asian market is still hot. I tried to use Deepseek for analysis. AI's expectation for gold prices to rise to 3400 this week is as high as 80%, while the expectation of falling back to 3200 is only 20%.
There are indeed many unstable factors on the news, but risk aversion is obviously heating up.
Despite this, we still need to be wary of possible super waterfall adjustments.
I still sorted out the current important support levels for everyone:
3320--3300--3280--3250--3220
Of course, after falling below 3280, I don’t think it’s necessary to blindly chase more.
At least above 3300, I think it will be safer to participate in long orders.
Today’s strategy:
Long near the low price of 3320
Long near the low price of 3300
Stop loss: 3298
Target: 3400
Elliott Wave Analysis on Natural Gas (XNGUSD) – Potential Wave 5We are observing a classic Elliott Wave structure unfolding on the Daily timeframe of Natural Gas (XNGUSD). Here's a breakdown of the current wave count:
Wave (1) started the initial impulse move up breaking the previous downtrend.
Wave (2) retraced sharply but respected the Fibonacci support zone.
Wave (3) extended significantly, following typical wave dynamics.
Wave (4) appears to have completed near a key support zone, aligning with previous structure and a possible Fibonacci retracement level.
🔹 We are now potentially entering Wave (5) — a final impulse leg to the upside in this cycle.
🔹 Entry is anticipated at the completion of Wave (4), with targets projected near the previous swing highs.
🔹 A stop-loss is marked just below the Wave (4) support zone to manage risk effectively.
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio , especially if price continues to respect the Elliott Wave pattern.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is shared purely for educational and study purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation. Please do your own research and consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Extreme Sentiment in Metals: Gold & Silver Correction Ahead?In my previous update for this week , Despite my expectation of a correction beginning this week, Gold closed with a 3% gain yesterday, showing amazing strength . The daily chart still reflects an overbought RSI on monthly (85) and weekly (80) timeframes, reinforcing my view that a correction phase is imminent.
While Gold has soared, Silver has lagged, failing to reclaim its late March high. I expect Silver to follow gold during this correction, potentially pushing the Gold/Silver ratio higher to a target of 110-114. The recent upside move in Silver formed an ending diagonal with a powerful throw-over, suggesting exhaustion. For Silver to confirm an uptrend and invalidate the corrective count, it must break above 33.45.
Sentiment levels are at extremes, with the Daily Sentiment Index hitting 83 for Gold and 87 for Silver, indicating overbought conditions that often precede reversals. A major concern is the Dollar Index (DXY), which looks set to make a lower low after forming an triangle on the 1-hour chart. When DXY turns up, metals are likely to face heavy pressure. I believe better entry points for bullish metals positions will emerge after this correction, especially as DXY bottoming process nears.
Despite Gold recent strength, my view remains unchanged —both metals are due for a correction. Gold rally off the April 7 low appears corrective (wave iv) compared to the impulsive wave iii sell-off, and Silver ending diagonal adds to the bearish case.
The lack of daily close confirmation for a correction in Gold hasn’t altered my stance, but I’m watching closely. The DXY anticipated rally could be the catalyst to push metals lower. I’m targeting Gold support at 3,150-3,168 and then 3000 for this correction and Silver critical level at 30.50 as key areas to monitor.
Gold Trading Strategy for 17th April 2025📊 Gold Intraday Trading Strategy
✅ Buy Setup (Long Position)
Entry Trigger: Enter long (Buy) above the high of the 15-minute candle, only if the price closes above ₹3372.
Buy Confirmation: Wait for a strong bullish close above ₹3372 on a 15-minute timeframe.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: ₹3385
🎯 Target 2: ₹3395
🎯 Target 3: ₹3409
Stop Loss: Below the low of the trigger candle or a logical support zone (e.g., below ₹3360 depending on market structure).
❌ Sell Setup (Short Position)
Entry Trigger: Enter short (Sell) below the low of the 1-hour candle, only if the price closes below ₹3333.
Sell Confirmation: Ensure a clear breakdown with volume and strong bearish candle closing below ₹3333 on the hourly chart.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: ₹3320
🎯 Target 2: ₹3305
🎯 Target 3: ₹3290
Stop Loss: Above the high of the breakdown candle or a key resistance level (e.g., above ₹3345 depending on setup).
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in commodities like gold involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research or consult with a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.